Showing posts with label BDI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BDI. Show all posts

Thursday, September 24, 2009

The economy is getting better?..BDI continues to fall. Update

Update: Bureau of Labor statistics are caught fudging their own data!


Here is that last piece of data, over the previous three months:
-June 39 states down, 10 states up (1 unchanged)
-July 29 states down, 21 states up
-August 42 states down, 8 states up
Already, we can see a huge discrepancy in the numbers. While both sets of data, show huge, fictional improvements between June and July, the state-by-state data shows a reversal for August – with the labour market obviously deteriorating dramatically based upon their own measurements. However, this didn't stop the BLS from refuting its own data to report an improvement between July and August, when it released its aggregate number.



Economists continue with their upbeat predictions yet I don't see it. Everyone is happy that 'only' 530,000 people filed NEW unemployment claims.....thats over half a million people...how is that positive?
Another indicator I watch is the Baltic Dry Index. It is still plummeting which means manufactured goods aren't shipping, because companies and thus people aren't buying.

Chart from investment tools

Monday, August 10, 2009

Stimulus wearing off....(China that is).

A great indicator of future markets as well as production comes from the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which is considered a leading economic indicator. The BDI basically helps track shipping most notably raw materials that go into production of goods. As the BDI goes up that means more companies are making more products due to an increased demand. If it goes down that means production is slowing.

The BDI grew steadily from 2nd Qtr. 2002 to 2nd Qtr 2008 when the economy tanked. It reached a low 4th Qtr 2008 not seen in over a decade. At this time stimulus money, most notably from the Chinese government began to take hold. The Chinese pumped money directly into infrastructure projects (over 60%) versus the US pumping it into pork projects with no production value. This caused a demand for raw materials (thus increase in production) over the last few months with the BDI rising to 2006-2007 levels. Here comes the catch.....once the stimulus was burned through the hope was the economies around the world would have picked up....they haven't. The BDI has slid some 35% since it's high in June and appears to continue this loss.

Here is what worries me...China is the largest holder of US debt. If things get tough for China, who do you think they are going to want money from?...the countries that owe them. If Congress and the President continue to try to bury us in debt, we will either have to default or pay up....since we are already $11.6 trillion dollars in debt...how exactly are we going to do that? The legislative and executive branches are dooming us to economic collapse.

Is anyone awake out there?